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This report explains the challenges and issues retailers face, as well as the opportunities the market offers for future growth.
Scope
*Market value 1999-2009e including girls, boys and infantswear market sizes. Channel value and shares, space allocation and advertising spend.
*Profiles of 16 major operators including Asda, Adams, Gap, H&M, M&S, Matalan, Mothercare, Primark, Tesco, and a new addition on smaller specialists.
*Five year market shares, 10 year trading records and store portfolios, sale densities, space allocation, advertising spend, key operating statistics.
*Outlook for market and analysis of threat from smaller niche operators, non specialists and online development.
Highlights
Though the childrenswear market will decline by 0.1% in 2009 this will be less than adult sectors, and infantswear will increase thanks to a mini baby boom. The most important change is in volume, which we expect to slump from growth of 4.0% in 2008 to a decline of 0.1%. This represents a challenge for childrenswear retailers.
Retailers have won share primarily as a result of Woolworths’ demise in late 2008. The 5.4% market share this freed up has been spread across the market but value retailers and grocers are the main beneficiaries. Grocers collectively have gained 324 million in 2009.
Childrenswear specialists have continued to lose share – only Mothercare and Adams remain as significant operators, with the former having the most potential to grow its business in both the UK and internationally. Clothing specialists hold the largest share of the market – accounting for over half the 4.23bn market in 2009.
Reasons to Purchase
*Benchmark your business against competitors and the market with Verdict’s comprehensive data and expert analysis.
*Identify growth opportunities and develop effective business plans by comparing retailers’ tactics and using our advice on strategies for success.
*Understand the dynamics of the market and which categories will produce further market share gains once Woolworths’ share has been absorbed.
Table of Contents :
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key findings
Main conclusions
Childrenswear resilient as consumers cut back
Falling volumes major factor in declining childrenswear sales
Mini baby boom to drive market growth
Online essential to defend market share
Woolworths demise creates opportunities
Adams and JJB other casualties
Clothing specialists gain – but midmarket cedes share to value players
Primark big winner
Matalan and Peacocks also do well
Grocers pick up Woolworths share
Midmarket loses grip of sector
Price deflation softening
CHAPTER 2 MARKET ANALYSIS
Market definition
Market trends
More resilient than market
Deflation slowing
Trends by sub categories
Infantswear benefits from baby boom & older mothers
Channels of distribution
Grocers biggest winners as specialists suffer
CHAPTER 3 COMPANY DATA ANALYSIS
Top childrenswear retailers
Next under pressure at top of table
Market shares
Woolworths share creates opportunity
Market shares – winners & losers
Primark moving ahead
Sales densities
Key operating statistics
Space allocation
Advertising expenditure
CHAPTER 4 OUTLOOK
Key issues
Recessionary factors have less effect on childrenswear than other catergories
Childrenswear prioritised as spending patterns change in recession
Changing patterns in motherhood and demographics
Price inflation delayed but due soon
Midmarket faces new wave of competition
CHAPTER 5 ASDA (GEORGE)
Benefits from consumer focus on low prices
Recent key events
Reacts to consumers changed view on value for money
Proposition
Every day value and convenience key
Financials
Sales growth accelerates during downturn
Space
Space expansion and rising densities both help growth
Sector performance – childrenswear
George sales beat market
Outlook
Under pressure from value clothing retailers
CHAPTER 6 BHS
Bhs cuts costs through Arcadia merger
Recent key events
Proposition
More investment needed to create new brand positioning
Financials
Turnover in gradual decline
Space
Bhs puts store growth on hold
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Childrenswear sales fall back after small revival
Outlook
Needs to widen customer range, which Arcadia brands will do
CHAPTER 7 DEBENHAMS
Shows rivals how to segment childrenswear with sub brands
Recent key events
Developments in product offer
Proposition
Broad brand portfolio attracts a wide customer base
Financials
Trading performance positive
Space
Expansion has driven sales growth
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Recovery continues after a dip in 2007
Outlook
Midmarket customers recognise value of better products
CHAPTER 8 GAP
Struggles to reverse sales losses in UK
Recent key events
Problems in core business yet to be tackled
Proposition
Midmarket positioning lacks differentiation
Financials
UK sales on the slide since 2005
Space
Expansion put on hold til now
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Renewed decline after stabilisation in 2007/08
Outlook
UK business a prisoner of US corporate strategy
CHAPTER 9 H&M
Swedish giant continues UK success
Recent key events
UK remains top performing market for H&M
Proposition
Fashion proposition carefully geared to age groups
Financials
Fashion and value positioning enables H&M to ride out downturn
Space
More and larger stores for H&M
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Space productivity takes a dip in 2009
Outlook
Increasingly powerful player but could high profitability be under threat?
CHAPTER 10 JJB SPORTS
Suffers from sports market downturn
Recent key events
New management aims to stabilise JJB financially
Proposition
Needs to revive authority as performance sportswear retailer
Financials
Slump in sales leads to losses
Sales hit by decline in like-for-likes and store disposals
Space
Major contraction as loss-making stores go
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Childrenswear sales fall away as general performance deteriorates
Market share halves over five years
Outlook
Remains in a difficult situation
CHAPTER 11 JOHN LEWIS
Fashion growth an antidote to home market crisis
Recent key events
Fashion takes lead in the wake of a downturn in home
Proposition
A one stop shop for wealthy middle class customers
Financials
Margins take a tumble as the downturn bites
Space
Expansion plans held up by downturn in property market
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Boosted by fashion success
Outlook
Growth in fashion will put pressure on midmarket rivals
CHAPTER 12 MARKS & SPENCER
Needs childrenswear boutique type environments with child appeal
Recent key events
Devises post-recession strategy
Proposition
Growth trend reverses as recession hits
Financials
Trading performance disappoints again
Space
Space expansion key factor behind growth
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Sharp decline in sales and space productivity after three years of growth
Outlook
Needs to speed up execution of growth strategy
CHAPTER 13 MATALAN
Childrenswear needs new ranges to add excitement
Recent key events
Business improvements attract new customers
Proposition
Creates more interest in the OOT store environment
Financials
Like-for-like uplifts boost performance
Space
Expansion on agenda again
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Sudden recovery after stagnation in 2008/09
Outlook
Strategy delivers growth, boosted further by recession
CHAPTER 14 MOTHERCARE
One stop shop in larger stores creates halo effect for clothing
Recent key events
Mothercare cuts costs and reinforces brand
Proposition
Creating a retail destination for parents
Financials
International operations drive profits growth
Space
High street stores cut back
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Outlook
Product and brand authority in younger market a big strength
CHAPTER 15 NEW LOOK
More gender-neutral brand could raise sales of boyswear
Recent key events
Grows business
Proposition
Moves store image upmarket
Financials
Trading performance continues to impress
Space
Space expansion and online are the key factors behind UK growth
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Sales take off in 2007/08 and 2008/09
Outlook
Competition with value retailers intensifies
CHAPTER 16 NEXT
Childrenswear sales stagnate despite raising space
Recent key events
Next revamps brand image while bearing down on costs
Proposition
Next creates more aspirational retail experience
Financials
Sales trend dips into decline
Space – growth slows but larger sites are targeted
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Next’s childrenswear sales stagnate
Outlook
Highly profitable but circumstances not in its favour
CHAPTER 17 PEACOCKS
Benefits from downturn
Recent key events
Proposition
Basic stores allow for high fashion at value prices
Financials
Growth in sales remains consistently strong
Space
Peacocks pace of expansion slows after bumper 2007/08
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Childrenswear sales growth accelerates
Outlook
Peacocks wins from consumer downturn
CHAPTER 18 PRIMARK
Primark continues in its success
Recent key events
Proposition
Basic stores allow for high fashion at value prices
Financials
Sales growth slows, but stays over 10.0% in UK
Space
Aggressive expansion switches overseas
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Childrenswear sales increase slows
Outlook
Brand evolving as it expands
CHAPTER 19 TESCO
Market leader threatened from all angles
Recent key events
Continuous initiatives to ride out recession on top
Proposition
Growth trend reverses as recession hits
Financials
Trading performance shows ability to defy recession
Space
Sustains space growth despite recession
Space allocation
Sector performance – childrenswear
Sales revive after dip
Outlook
Needs sales drivers beyond adding space
CHAPTER 20 GLOSSARY
` Financial Statistics – VAT
Trading Profile
Key Operating Ratios
Physical Development
Abbreviations
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Childrenswear market definition 2009
Table 2: Childrenswear and total clothing market trends 1999-2009e
Table 3: Childrenswear market trends by sub category 1999-2009e
Table 4: Childrenswear channels of distribution by value 2004-2009e
Table 5: Childrenswear channels of distribution breakdown 2004-2009e
Table 6: Childrenswear channels of distribution breakdown 2004-2009e
Table 7: Childrenswear market shares 2004-2009e
Table 8: Clothing retailers key UK operating statistics 2008/09
Table 9: Childrenswear retailers space allocation 2009
Table 10: Leading childrenswear retailers advertising spend 2003-2008
Table 11: Childrenswear retailers advertising spend by media type 2008
Table 12: Percentage of births to foreign born women 2007 on 2001
Table 13: Niche specialist childrenswear retailers 2009
Table 14: Smaller non-specialist childrenswear retailers 2009
Table 15: Major online developments in childrenswear 2009
Table 16: Asda company overview 2010
Table 17: Asda retail proposition 2010
Table 18: Asda UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009e
Table 19: Asda trading record 1999-2009e
Table 20: Asda store portfolio 1999-2009e
Table 21: Asda childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 22: Bhs company overview 2010
Table 23: Bhs retail proposition 2010
Table 24: Bhs UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009e
Table 25: Bhs trading record 1999-2009e
Table 26: Bhs store portfolio 1999-2009e
Table 27: Bhs childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 28: Debenhams company overview 2010
Table 29: Debenhams retail proposition 2010
Table 30: Debenhams UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009
Table 31: Debenhams group trading record 1999-2009
Table 32: Debenhams group store portfolio 1999-2009e
Table 33: Debenhams childrenswear space allocation v market av 2009
Table 34: Gap company overview 2010
Table 35: Gap retail proposition 2010
Table 36: Gap UK key operating statistics summary 2005-2010e
Table 37: Gap trading record 2000e-2010e
Table 38: Gap UK store portfolio 1999-2009e
Table 39: Gap childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 40: H&M company overview 2010
Table 41: H&M retail proposition 2010
Table 42: H&M UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009e
Table 43: H&M UK trading record 1999-2009e
Table 44: H&M UK store portfolio 1999-2009e
Table 45: H&M childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 46: JJB Sports company overview 2010
Table 47: JJB Sports retail proposition 2010
Table 48: JJB Sports key operating statistics summary 2004-2009
Table 49: JJB Sports trading record 1998-2010e
Table 50: JJB Sports store portfolio 1999-2010e
Table 51: JJB Sports childrenswear space allocation vs market av 2009
Table 52: John Lewis company overview 2010
Table 53: John Lewis retail proposition 2010
Table 54: John Lewis UK key operating statistics summary 2005-2010e
Table 55: John Lewis trading record 2000-2010e
Table 56: John Lewis store portfolio 2000-2010e
Table 57: John Lewis childrenswear space allocation vs market av 2009
Table 58: Marks & Spencer company overview 2010
Table 59: Marks & Spencer retail proposition 2010
Table 60: Marks & Spencer UK key operating statistics 2004-2009
Table 61: Marks & Spencer UK trading record 1999-2009
Table 62: M&S store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 63: M&S store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 64: M&S childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 65: Matalan company overview 2010
Table 66: Matalan retail proposition 2010
Table 67: Matalan UK key operating statistics summary 2005-2010e
Table 68: Matalan trading record 1999-2010e
Table 69: Matalan store portfolio 1999-2010e
Table 70: Matalan childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 71: Mothercare company overview 2010
Table 72: Mothercare retail proposition 2010
Table 73: Mothercare UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009
Table 74: Mothercare UK trading record 1998-2009
Table 75: Mothercare store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 76: Mothercare childrenswear space allocation vs market av 2009
Table 77: New Look company overview 2010
Table 78: New Look retail proposition 2010
Table 79: New Look UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009e
Table 80: New Look trading record 1999-2009e
Table 81: New Look UK store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 82: New Look store portfolio 2008-2009
Table 83: New Look space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 84: New Look kids space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 85: Next company overview 2010
Table 86: Next retail proposition 2010
Table 87: Next Brand key operating statistics summary 2005-2010e
Table 88: Next Brand trading record 2000-2010e
Table 89: Next Brand turnover and profits 2005-2010e
Table 90: Next UK store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 91: Next childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 92: Peacocks company overview 2010
Table 93: Peacocks retail proposition 2010
Table 94: Peacocks UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009e
Table 95: Peacocks UK trading record 1999-2009e
Table 96: Peacocks store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 97: Peacocks childrenswear space allocation vs market av 2009
Table 98: Primark company overview 2010
Table 99: Primark retail proposition 2010
Table 100: Primark UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009e
Table 101: Primark trading record 1999-2009e
Table 102: Primark store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 103: Primark childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
Table 104: Tesco company overview 2010
Table 105: Tesco retail proposition 2010
Table 106: Tesco UK key operating statistics summary 2004-2009
Table 107: Tesco UK trading record 1998-2009e
Table 108: Tesco store portfolio 1999-2009
Table 109: Tesco childrenswear space allocation vs market average 2009
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Childrenswear and clothing sales index (1999 = 100) to 2009e
Figure 2: Childrenswear as % of total clothing sales 1999-2009e
Figure 3: Deflation in childrenswear 2004-2009e
Figure 4: Sales split in childrenswear 1999 and 2009e
Figure 5: Change in channel share 2009e on 2004
Figure 6: Top childrenswear retailers market shares 2004 and 2009e
Figure 7: Winners & losers in the childrenswear market 2009e on 2008
Figure 8: Estimated childrenswear sales densities year end 2008/2009
Figure 9: Childrenswear market issues 2010
Figure 10: Percentage change in consumer expenditure, current prices seasonally adjusted, 2009 Q1 vs 2008 Q1
Figure 11: Thousands of UK live births 1998-2008
Figure 12: 000s of UK live births by age of mother 1998 and 2008
Figure 13: Forecast of child population by age group 2009-2014
Figure 14: Price index for clothing imports (2005=100) and value of the pound against the US dollar and euro Q2 2007 to Q2 2009
Figure 15: Asda sales growth to December 2004-2009e
Figure 16: Asda UK retail operating profit to December 2003-2007
Figure 17: Asda UK clothing sales per sq ft (est) to December 2004-2009e
Figure 18: Asda clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 19: Asda childrenswear sales to December 2004e-2009e
Figure 20: Asda childrenswear sales per sq ft to December 2004e-2009e
Figure 21: Asda childrenswear market share 2004e-2009e
Figure 22: Bhs UK retail sales and growth, year end March 2004-2009e
Figure 23: Bhs group operating profit year end March 2004-2009e
Figure 24: Bhs clothing space allocation 2005-2009
Figure 25: Bhs Childrenswear sales to year end 2004e-2009e
Figure 26: Bhs childrenswear sales per sq ft to end March 2004e-2009e
Figure 27: Bhs childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 28: Debenhams UK retail sales and growth to August 2004-2009
Figure 29: Debenhams Group operating profit to August 2004-2009
Figure 30: Debenhams online sales to August 2005-2009e
Figure 31: Debenhams clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 32: Debenhams childrenswear sales to August 2004e-2009e
Figure 33: Debenhams childrenswear sales/sq ft to August 2004e-2009e
Figure 34: Debenhams childrenswear market shares 2004-2009e
Figure 35: Gap UK sales and growth, year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 36: Gap clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 37: Gap childrenswear sales growth, year to January 2002-2010e
Figure 38: Gap childrenswear sales/sq ft, year to January 2005e-2010e
Figure 39: Gap childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 40: H&M UK sales and growth, year to November 2004-2009e
Figure 41: H&M UK operating profit year to November 2004-2009e
Figure 42: H&M clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 43: H&M childrenswear sales year to November 2004e-2009e
Figure 44: H&M childrenswear sales per sq ft to November 2004e-2009e
Figure 45: H&M childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 46: JJB Sports UK sales and growth, year to January 2004-2009e
Figure 47: JJB Sports Group operating profit year to January 2004-2009e
Figure 48: JJB Sports clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 49: JJB Sports childrenswear sales year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 50: JJB Sports childrenswear sales/ sq ft to January 2005e-2010e
Figure 51: JJB Sports childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 52: John Lewis UK sales and growth, year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 53: John Lewis operating profit, year to January 2004-2009e
Figure 54: John Lewis clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 55: John Lewis childrenswear sales and growth to Jan 2004-2009
Figure 56: John Lewis childrenswear sales/sq ft to January 2004-2009e
Figure 57: John Lewis childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 58: Marks & Spencer UK sales and growth year to March 2004-2009
Figure 59: Marks & Spencer UK operating profit year to March 2004-2009
Figure 60: Y-o-Y change % in M&S quarterly divisional sales in UK Q1 2008/09-Q1 2009/10
Figure 61: M&S UK divisional l-f-l performance year to March 2008/09
Figure 62: Marks & Spencer online sales year to March 2008-2011e
Figure 63: M&S est sales/sq ft in food and non-food to March 2005-2009
Figure 64: M&S clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 65: M&S childrenswear sales year to March 2004-2009
Figure 66: M&S childrenswear sales per sq ft to end March 2004-2009
Figure 67: M&S childrenswear market share 2004-2009
Figure 68: Matalan store interior Longton 2009
Figure 69: Matalan Amman store entrance 2009
Figure 70: Matalan UK sales and growth, year to February 2005-2010e
Figure 71: Matalan operating profit year to February 2005-2010e
Figure 72: Matalan clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 73: Matalan childrenswear sales growth year to February 2005-2010
Figure 74: Matalan childrenswear sales per sq ft to February 2005-2010e
Figure 75: Matalan childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 76: Mothercare UK sales and growth, year to March 2004-2009
Figure 77: Mothercare UK operating profit year to March 2004-2009
Figure 78: Mothercare direct sales year to March 2004-2009
Figure 79: Mothercare childrenswear sales year to March 2004-2009e
Figure 80: Mothercare childrenswear sales per sq ft to March 2004-2009
Figure 81: Mothercare childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 82: New Look UK retail sales and growth, year to March 2004-2009
Figure 83: New Look group operating profit year to March 2004-2009
Figure 84: New Look online visitors year to March 2008 and 2009
Figure 85: New Look clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 86: New Look childrenswear sales year end March 2004-2009
Figure 87: New Look childrenswear sales per sq ft to March 2004-2009
Figure 88: New Look childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 89: Next Brand sales and growth, year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 90: Next Brand operating profit, year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 91: Next clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 92: Next UK childrenswear sales, year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 93: Next UK childrenswear sales, year to January 2005-2010e
Figure 94: Next childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 95: Peacocks UK retail sales and growth, year to March 2004-2009
Figure 96: Peacocks group operating profit year to March 2004-2009
Figure 97: Peacocks clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 98: Peacocks childrenswear sales year to March 2004e-2009e
Figure 99: Peacocks childrenswear sales per sq ft to March 2004-2009
Figure 100: Peacocks childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
Figure 101: Primark UK retail sales and growth to September 2004-2009e
Figure 102: Primark group operating profit year to September 2003-2008
Figure 103: Primark clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 104: Primark childrenswear sales year to September 2004-2009e
Figure 105: Primark childrenswear sales per sq ft to September 2004-2009e
Figure 106: Primark childrenswear market share 2004-2009
Figure 107: Tesco UK sales and growth, year to February 2004-2009
Figure 108: Tesco UK operating profit year to February 2004-2009
Figure 109: Tesco UK non-food sales growth, year to February 2006-2009
Figure 110: Tesco.com online sales year to February 2005-2009
Figure 111: Tesco clothing space breakdown 2005-2009
Figure 112: Tesco childrenswear sales year to February 2004-2009
Figure 112: Tesco childrenswear sales per sq ft to February 2004-2009
Figure 113: Tesco childrenswear market share 2004-2009e
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