Are you expecting to see a news headline like, “Soccer World Cup 2010 Cancelled – South Africa, Not Ready!” What about this one, “SA not Capable of Hosting a Successful Cup!” What about, “2010 Has No Benefit for the Average South African!”. Many believe South Africa is not capable of hosting a World Cup, citing a bucket full of problems from lack of infrastructure to Swine Flu! Well the IOC, FIFA & the SA government disagree and they all believe that the hosting of a big even is not only possible but will be the best ever and the answer to our economic woes to boot, and I for one, am pleased, as my woes are increasingly nasty.
What about property? According to the hype, by 2010 and 1 day we will all be retired with fat property portfolios, pretty cool hey? But is it true? Were the Chinese really in an once-in-a-lifetime property-buying opportunity during the Olympics? Karen Robinson in The Sunday Times tells us that – Athens, Sydney, Atlanta and Barcelona – all saw property prices outperform their national markets in the 5 years leading up to the games. Barcelona – most impressive – prices rose 49% than they did in the rest of Spain. The differential in Sydney was 11%, in Athens 9%, and in Atlanta 6%.
No every one is so sure the growth is a given, Emma Thelwell notes that not all the games took place amid ongoing property booms & London games will likely coincide with a property slump, so will London see growth? It seems more likely to be small, and another factor is that prices in east London climbed 40% ahead of the national trend over the past few years, so they are starting from a high. In South Sydney, far from the Olympic stadium, prices rose significantly faster than in the Olympic corridor in the run up to the games and Michael Bounds published a paper on the Games’ impact on the property market says it was essentially because the area was already undergoing regeneration.
So if you insist on trying to make your fortune out of SA or London property markets, look for areas that will do best out of regeneration. Sorry looks like it depends where your property lies in the scheme of things. So in South Africa I guess the regeneration of former, “urban decay” areas will probably be a better bet that upmarket areas in terms of % growth, as a result of 2010? Some say the tournament will never happen anyway, they believe SA will not be ready, that Swine Flu or political chaos will kill the dream? Not according to Blatter who said in an interview with the FM, “There is no reason to believe that we will have to re-evaluate the situation of the 2010 World Cup due to any organizational issues… We are convinced that the World Cup will take place in SA.”
Is Blatter gambling, I doubt it? Remember that FIFA’s makes 86% of its revenue from this single event that is staged every four years, so they leave nothing to chance when it comes to the World Cup and it seems to be paying off. The federation’s 2007- 2010 revenue budget is US$3,2bn, and it has already raised $3,1bn through the sale of sponsorship and broadcasting rights for the South African World Cup – double the $1,8bn revenue it made in Germany. So what else will 2010 have in store for South Africa! The truth is that the Soccer World Cup hardly touched German economy at all according to a report released in Germany. “The World Cup’s contribution to economic growth has been negligible. It was great fun. Nothing more, nothing less.”
Can this be true? Even after consulting firm Grant Thornton said that the World Cup will pump around R21.3-billion into South Africa’s economy, generating an estimated R12.7-billion in direct spending and creating an estimated 159 000 new jobs? The short answer is yes, the truth is the capital expenditure always outweighs the income, the stadiums alone are reported to be costing R11- billion, road infrastructure – R14- billion, Airports Company SA – R20- billion, National Roads – R70- billion, Metro rail – R18- billion.
Goolam Ballim, (chief economist – Standard Bank) believes,”…the indirect impact may be more meaningful for a sustainable economic lift in subsequent years… it will help change the perceptions that a large number of foreign investors hold of Africa and South Africa.” In the short term the country’s tourism industry will benefit from the estimated three million visitors expected for the tournament, while construction and engineering companies will look to a slice of the billions to be spent on infrastructure in the lead-up to the event. So unless you are actually building the stadium, have a guest house or sell beer don’t order the yacht just yet. The real good news for South Africa is the legacy of 2010. The improved infrastructure and heightened international awareness, this is the platform for success not the prize.
John Mauldin, recently voted second only to Warren Buffet as an investment guru, after visiting SA had this to say about, “Finding Value in South Africa, “There is much to like about emerging markets. That is where a great deal of the real potential growth in the coming decades will be. And South Africa will be one of the better stories. If you are not doing business there already, you should ask yourself, why not?” Wow, a strong endorsement, so the WC is coming, the stadiums are all but finished and best of all South Africa has just had a peaceful, free and democratic election – WOW!
Anton is a property broker in Port Elizabeth – http://www.soccer2010accommodation.co.za
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